Studying Telluride market stats for over 30+ years, I’ve learned to look at them from both the macro and micro point of view. Generally, it takes a full quarter of market stats to just begin to see a trend, if there is one. This year is no exception. For the first four months of 2018, the real estate market is down 20% in the dollar amount of sales as compared to the first four months of 2017 and is down 25% in the number of sales. Some local real estate prognosticators say that’s okay when looking at the last ten years average sales. I’m not so sure of that. Last year which was the best year in ten years was still only the fourth best year in the last fifteen years. 2005, 2006 and 2007 were better. In fact, last year’s sales volume of $621,070,734 was 18% less than the 2007 sales of $756,586,661. Yet, to put this in perspective, Aspen and Vail last year were both below their record years by about the same percentage. The only Colorado resort market that had its best year ever last year was Breckenridge with Winter Park coming within 1% of its record year.
Yet, there is some good news. Generally, the Town of Telluride values, meaning median prices and price per square foot for sales have recovered to their peak year’s best historically. High end homes and condominiums in the Town of Telluride are selling at $1200 to $1300 per square foot and a couple of sales a little higher than that. Inventory is down substantially in the last fifteen months in the Town of Telluride and the Mountain Village. Of course, inventory availability does vary a lot in different price ranges. We can drill down in any category of interest for you as a seller or a buyer. On April 30th, there were 602 actively listed properties in the Telluride MLS in San Miguel County excluding deed restricted properties. For the last ten years, annual listed inventory has averaged about 1000 properties. On that same date, there were 47 properties under contract in those same categories. The total number of sales in the first quarter of this year was 109. This is the highest ratio of sales to available listings that I have seen in twenty plus years.
How is the Telluride regional real estate market doing compared to other Colorado resorts? In the first quarter of this year, according to Land Title Guarantee Company, the Telluride market was down almost 22%, the Aspen market was up 35%, Vail up 10 plus %, Breckenridge down 8% and Steamboat down 8%. There is some variance on stats from source to source, but not usually material. We check MLS stats in the Telluride market, Telluride Consulting stats and Land Title Guarantee Company stats too. All are reliable but use slightly different search and recording information. The Harvey Team is respectful and thankful for all of these sources.
Our predictions for the rest of the year: My best guess is that the market will stay at about the same average volume of sales in dollars and number of sales for the rest of 2018. There are some very pricy properties for sale in our region and if some of those do sell that could spike up the annual dollar sales volume. Many casual viewers of the Telluride regional market sales don’t really notice that the number of sales monthly and hence annually is not great. In 2017, the average monthly number of sales was 50. In 2005, the average monthly number of sells was almost 75. That’s a huge difference. In my opinion, as properties have got more expensive in the Telluride region it is logical that there are fewer buyers who can afford them. Also, the construction industry lost 30% to 40% of its labor force during the recession and has not recovered from that. Buyers are desiring more sophisticated homes, both environmentally and technologically. Lastly, local governments are wanting development to ‘pay its own way’. What that means is more costs put upon development and construction for environmental impacts, local work force housing, regional public transportation and many other community desired services. The end result is that all of these costs are passed on to the consumer and real estate becomes more and more expensive.
Our long range view is that the real estate market in future is pretty good for the Town of Telluride and Mountain Village because ultimately, there is a very limited supply of product that really can’t be increased in any significant way. As they say, it’s economics 101… supply and demand.
We hope you have enjoyed this more in depth look at our regional real estate market. It’s a wonderful place both in beauty and community. Call or email us for unabashed real estate advice at George@TheHarveyTeam.Net or on my cell at 970-729-0111.