2018 In Review – Telluride Area

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The last 10 years have seen Telluride regional sales volume increase from $265.7 million in 2009 to $537.5 million in 2018. The number of sales in the county was 276 in 2009 and 499 in 2018. That is an 80% increase in the number of sales and over a 100% increase in the dollar amount of sales in ten years. Not too shabby. However, the dollar amount of sales in 2018 was down 13% as compared to 2017 and the number of sales were down 19% during the same comparison year. Click here for 2018 over view.

 

Let’s dig a little deeper. At the end of 2018, inventory listed for sale in the town of Telluride was up a little in homes for sale and condominiums for sale…about 19% in both categories. The number of condominiums for sale in the Mountain Village was actually up almost 28% at the end of 2018 as compared to the end of the year in 2017. However, most of the other categories of real estate were flat or down in the number of properties available for sale at the end of 2018. What these general stats won’t tell you is how inventory listed for sale in different price ranges were affected; we can say it varies a lot. For a detailed comparison of sales and inventory changes in twelve categories for 2018 click here for our annual San Miguel County Real Estate Sales Activity Report comparison for 2017 and 2018 that we have been calculating for 20 + years. Please note that we are predicting a decrease in the number of sales and dollar amount of sales for 2019 in the range of 5% to 10%. That is mostly due to shrinking inventory in certain popular market segments with buyers. We also see some leveling off in listing prices for 2019 due to slight ‘sticker shock’ by more buyers. 

 

Let’s now take a detailed look at homes sales in the town of Telluride and town of Mountain Village for 2018 by clicking on this link. Notice the number of homes listed on 12/31/18, the number of homes under contract and the number of homes sold in all of 2018. This comparison is known as the absorption rate…or how many homes sold in different price ranges. As you will notice, most of the home sales in the Telluride and Mountain Village were under $4 million. In fact, in the Mountain Village there were 38 homes for sale above $4 million and only 4 sold all year in 2018. The town of Telluride had nine homes for sale above $4 million and five sold in 2018 with one under contract at the end of 2018.

 

Let’s examine the annual sales prices and prices paid per square foot for the last ten years for homes and condominiums in the town of Telluride and town of Mountain Village. Click here for those four detailed graphs.

 

Below are some comparisons with average asking prices per square foot (listing prices) with actual average prices paid per square foot (PSF) for both homes and condominiums in the town of Telluride and town of Mountain Village in 2018.           

        

Town of Telluride Homes: 

Asking prices PSF $1,220 | Selling prices PSF $1,104

 

Town of Telluride Condos:

Asking prices PSF $1,056 | Selling prices PSF  $772

 

Town of Mountain Village Homes:

Asking prices PSF $848 | Selling prices PSF $637

 

Town of Mountain Village Condos:

Asking prices PSF $748 | Selling prices PSF $610

 

The most disparity is in Mountain Village homes. Sellers are listing at 33% higher than selling prices. Most of that disparity is in homes above $4 million…those 38 homes mentioned above. They will have a much better chance of selling if priced to the current market. Of course, we have a lot of sellers that “don’t have to sell” but we also have mostly buyers that “don’t have to buy”. In fact, no one ‘needs’ a house at $4 million and up…but they might want one. Just because some buyers have achieved great financial success…that success didn’t make them stupid. They do their homework just like everyone else, and maybe even better. 

 

How are some of the other resorts doing? Well, it varies a lot. Here’s a brief overview of a few of them. 

 

Aspen: Sales were $1.8 billion in 2018, down $100 million as compared to 2017. Sales were down about 20% in the town of Aspen and up about 30% in Snowmass. The overall inventory in the Aspen regional market is down 40% in the last 10 years. However, with almost a hundred homes for sale above $10 million, only about 5% of them are currently under contract as I write this report. 

 

Vail: Vail had a good year with sales of $1.77 billion that is up over 2017 by 12%. Slifer Smith & Frampton ended the year with $1.53 billion in sales more than $1B above its next competitor. SS&F has dominated the Vail market since 1961 and is an ‘independent’ real estate company. 

 

Breckenridge: Breckenridge has seen the number of homes sold for more than $1 million jump from 58 in 2014 to 145 in 2017. As of the end of December, sales were up 5% over 2017 at $1,748,701,487. 

 

Jackson Hole: Whew! Total number of sales for 2018 was 532 (Telluride was 499) and total dollar amount of sales was $922.1 million (Telluride was $537.5 million). In my opinion, Jackson Hole most compares to Telluride in beauty, size and being wonderfully remote. Jackson Hole just has had a much ‘higher end’ real estate segment than Telluride. 

 

Lake Tahoe/Incline Village: Incline Village median prices increased by 19% to $1,269,000. Overall number of sales increased by 8% and dollar volume was up 12% over 2017. 

 

Closing thoughts: There is always a healthy bout of good news and challenging market issues. Certainly, some of the macro national issues may be affecting some buyers, but Telluride has never had more positive press and a truly limited amount of inventory. It is very difficult to create a lot of new home inventory in the towns of Telluride and Mountain Village and even more difficult to create new condominium projects. Real estate in a resort market is mostly a discretionary purchase, but one that has been popular for hundreds of years globally. 

 

If you have any questions about our annual Telluride Regional Real Estate Report or a specific area of interest please contact us at 970-729-0111 or George@TheHarveyTeam.Net. Thanks for taking the time to read Tellugram…now being published for 32 plus years!

 

Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose – Bill Gates